http://www.bnet.com/5799-19693-0.html?type=18 Blog Recent Discussion Activity http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/your-guide-to-blog-war-2/461/#18568_89915 Hey Why these links doesn't work to me?<br>________<br><a href="http://www.brandviagra.net/drugs/propecia-finasteride.htm">propecia</a> Tue, 10 Nov 2009 11:34:40 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/your-guide-to-blog-war-2/461/#18568_89915 2009-11-10T11:34:40Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-end-of-this-bear-market-rally-is-near/377/#13024_84261 Oh, market rally. I don't get to see that happen in Vermont. Here's a little trivia for you people ? ever wondered what the smallest state capital is? The smallest state capital is Montpelier, Vermont. It has an area of 10 square miles and a population of just over 8,000. The nearest national capital in size is St. George's, capital of Grenada, with a population of about 7,700. The largest state capital, by comparison is Phoenix, Arizona, which has a population of about over 5 million. The town was settled in the late 18th century, and incorporated as a city in 1895, though it previously had been an unincorporated township for over 100 years. (It means a town is there, but doesn't have the right paperwork.) However, the smallest state capital is a full service town ? in a region perhaps worth <a rev="vote for" title="The Best Place for an Online Payday Loan on The Internet Today!" href="http://personalmoneystore.com/Payday-Loans/ ">payday loans</a> to go see. <br> Sat, 10 Oct 2009 10:43:47 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-end-of-this-bear-market-rally-is-near/377/#13024_84261 2009-10-10T10:43:47Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/good-policy-bad-timing-how-the-stimulus-package-could-be-smarter/131/#15032_78036 Ceh4702?s three sentences above are more succinct than in Cowen?s article above. However, it seems that Tyler Cowen has recently tumbled to the truth in Ceh4702?s point (see <a href="http://www.winterspeak.com/" target="_blank">http://www.winterspeak.com/</a> post entitled ?Looking back at bailouts?).<br><br>I tumbled to the point that money needs channelling towards consumers, not banks, in December 2008 ? see my blog: <a href="http://printingmoneyisgood.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">http://printingmoneyisgood.blogspot.com/</a><br> Sun, 30 Aug 2009 12:33:06 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/good-policy-bad-timing-how-the-stimulus-package-could-be-smarter/131/#15032_78036 2009-08-30T12:33:06Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/back-to-the-myth-of-the-rational-market/489/#15391_74502 not sure how there can ever be a rational market if you have humans involved. humans as we all know are not 100% rational. and humans will learn how to game any system (and a 'free' market as we practice in the US is just that). in fact our version demands and requires that humans game it by hiding pertinent information as any time. so we truly do not have one. and never ever had one. and probably never will Sun, 09 Aug 2009 18:38:30 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/back-to-the-myth-of-the-rational-market/489/#15391_74502 2009-08-09T18:38:30Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/why-most-market-regulation-is-useless-andor-harmful/484/#15371_74409 "most regulation is championed by a confluence of Baptists and bootleggers, the first group with high motives, usually na?ve, and the second more cynical group who hide behind them." This quote, though catchy, is remarkably silly. It clearly reflects a cynical view of regulation, but doesn't seem to be representative of real-world attempts to regulate markets or anything else. Most proponents of regulation do not fall into either of the two camps, but are rather interested participants who understand that the optimal mixture of market freedom and market regulation is very hard to attain. Therefore, they believe that the most rational way to proceed is to view the markets as something akin to a controlled experiment: too much damping - relax restrictions; too much turbulence - strengthen restrictions. This approach probably strikes extremists on both ends of the regulation spectrum as stupid or wimpy, but then,the comfort of cartoonishly clear and simple philosophical conceptions is only afforded a select few. Regarding the remark that certain regulations 'don't do much, since profiteers quickly find ways to work around them'. Is this to be taken as an argument against regulation, or is the author merely making an observation? For when were behavioural constraints of any sort every proposed to be insurmountable barriers? They give a society a systematic way of taking punitive action against those engaging in destructively anti-social behaviour, and that is all they can be expected to do. Another assertion which I find to be dubious is that the Equal Credit Opportunity Act is to blame for the housing crunch. It may well have been a factor, but it was surely not as critical an ingredient as the appetites of lenders for the astronomical interest rates attached to the subprime loans they were issuing. The odd claims keep coming: does the author expect us to swallow the notion that Clinton's 'millionaire surtax' is the explanation for an excessive focus on share price? Since at least the time of the South Sea bubble (somewhat before Clinton's presidency), both shareholders and executives have been obsessed with share price. Excessive focus on share price is essentially a part of the DNA of the corporation. So while I'll concede that excessive focus on stock price played a part in the internet bubble (as it has in many bubbles over the last few hundred years), I think it's extremely unlikely that Clinton's 'surtax' had anything more than a negligible impact. Of course, one can argue about these things indefinitely because, when we discuss finance or economics, we are not remotely in the domain of science. It is never possible to prove conclusively that A implies B, and therefore people are free to explain market events (post-hoc, of course) using whatever arguments align most closely with their ideological world-views. Falkenstein's ideological bent is as obvious as arithmetic. Sat, 08 Aug 2009 06:39:08 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/why-most-market-regulation-is-useless-andor-harmful/484/#15371_74409 2009-08-08T06:39:08Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-price-isnt-always-right/464/#15220_73719 First, let me highly recommend Justin Fox's book. Very well researched, very well written and he does a good job of presenting both sides of the issue.<br><br>Second, the EMH is a hypothesis about how markets work. It is extremely helpful in providing us with an understanding of how markets set prices and helps us to figure out the winning investment strategy.<br><br>Third, the EMH does not say the market price is the "right" price. What it says is that the market's price is the best estimate of the right price--meaning it is highly unlikely that after expenses one will be able to exploit any mispricings (anomalies). And the evidence from a vast body of literature suggests that active management, the effort to exploit mispricings, is a loser's game. That means while it is possible to outperform, the odds of doing so are so poor that one should not try. And there is little to no evidence of any persistent outperformance beyond the randomly expected.<br><br>The evidence is consistent whether we look at studies on mutual funds, pension plans, hedge funds or individual investors. Venture capital is the only exception, and here the exception is minor. In aggregate venture capital has failed to deliver alpha but there is some evidence of persistent outperformance.<br><br>Professors Lee and Verbrugge provided this most important insight into the EMH:<br>"The efficient market theory is practically alone among theories in that it becomes more powerful when people discover serious inconsistencies between it and the real world. If a clear efficient market anomaly is discovered, the behavior (or lack of behavior) that gives rise to it will tend to be eliminated by competition among investors for higher returns."<br><br>My blog post June 8 addresses some of the issues surrounding the debate. <br><a href="http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/wise-investing/can-market-inefficiencies-be-exploited/498/?tag=col1;blog-river" target="_blank">http://moneywatch.bnet.com/investing/blog/wise-investing/can-market-inefficiencies-be-exploited/498/?tag=col1;blog-river</a> <br><br>The key for investors is to not whether the markets are perfectly efficient or not. Instead it is to understand what is the winning strategy. And here the answer is quite clear. Even some of the very people who attack the EMH, such as Professors Richard Thaler of the University of Chicago, admit that it is extremely difficult to beat the market, that few people do it, and they invest the vast majority of their own money in passive strategies (e.g., index funds). Tue, 04 Aug 2009 15:36:15 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-price-isnt-always-right/464/#15220_73719 2009-08-04T15:36:15Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-price-isnt-always-right/464/#15220_73728 Good point about Greenspan's ability to have stopped the bubble, even if he had recognized it. (Which i n the case of tech stocks, he apparently did, in the "irrational exuberance" remark of 1996). Makes you wonder about placing the Fed or a committee of regulators in charge of recognizing and bursting bubbles, as the proposed regulatory reform package does. Tue, 04 Aug 2009 10:36:37 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-price-isnt-always-right/464/#15220_73728 2009-08-04T10:36:37Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/good-policy-bad-timing-how-the-stimulus-package-could-be-smarter/131/#15032_72767 Show me the stimulus. Where is my check? Why do the democrats give all the money to the government thugs, but none to the people? <br><br>The O'Bamma stimulus plan is just a plan for larger government and poorer people. Tue, 28 Jul 2009 19:16:53 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/good-policy-bad-timing-how-the-stimulus-package-could-be-smarter/131/#15032_72767 2009-07-28T19:16:53Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/fear-inflation-because-of-the-feds-efforts-to-fight-deflation/429/#14150_69041 I believe it is matter of what timeframe one refers to. In the <br>short term, deflation is the issue. longer term, inflation becomes <br>the issue. Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:08:02 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/fear-inflation-because-of-the-feds-efforts-to-fight-deflation/429/#14150_69041 2009-07-02T17:08:02Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-end-of-this-bear-market-rally-is-near/377/#13024_66177 Thanks for the complement. The headwinds of higher interest rates, higher energy prices and a lower dollar have increased since my debate with Bruce McCain even started. If you want to see some original thinking on the Dollar and the effect that it is going to have on U.S. Market I suggest that you read my "Safe Haven ..." article which can be found on the front page of www.bearmarketnavigator.com Fri, 12 Jun 2009 15:08:54 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-end-of-this-bear-market-rally-is-near/377/#13024_66177 2009-06-12T15:08:54Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-end-of-this-bear-market-rally-is-near/377/#13024_64781 Agree, and I note some great socionomic thinking delivered in an understandable way. The collapse in the velocity of money is something scary to look at. Most economists (Keynesians) simply assume that the desire to buy on credit is constant, and that by stimulating credit, they stimulate buying, an efficient move along the classic supply and demand curve. That simplistic assumption does not account for a population that has passed a point of satiation; we no longer want to borrow money, no matter the stimulus. Worldwide, the credit spreads indicate a growing fear the stimulus will fail and that the US will not honor all of this debt. The rally may last a few weeks (or months) longer, but this windmill bubble will fizzle out. The foreclosure sales - resulting from the layoffs that began in late 2008 and continued through spring 2009 - have not yet begun. Wed, 03 Jun 2009 19:47:32 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/the-end-of-this-bear-market-rally-is-near/377/#13024_64781 2009-06-03T19:47:32Z http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/this-bull-market-has-legs/372/#12950_64369 Great post, Bruce. Thanks for the contribution. I'm persuaded--at least until I read the next post from your blog war opponent! Mon, 01 Jun 2009 15:05:54 GMT http://moneywatch.bnet.com/economic-news/blog/blog-war/this-bull-market-has-legs/372/#12950_64369 2009-06-01T15:05:54Z