Keep Emotion Out of Decision Making

•  
  pjmchugh@...05/10/08 Report as spam
  1

  Prediction Markets and Decision Support

  As noted, rivalry, time pressure and being in the spotlight can lead to decision disasters (or opportunities for exploitation depending on what side of the negotiating table you are sitting on). Leveraging prediction markets as a tool for decision support can diffuse some of these negative effects by adding a dispassionate viewpoint and capturing the "wisdom of crowds" as additional input to be considered. At BitInsight (www.bitinsight.com), a consulting firm utilizing prediction markets, we see interest in applying prediction market techniques to assist with acquisition decision support. The technique is ideally incorporated into an on-going decision support process and not applied for the first time in the "heat" of a large negotiation. Ultimately a market will decide on the wisdom of an acquisition decision made by any single individual. Isn't it better to have this feedback before-the-fact via an internal prediction market where little real money is at stake (if any) versus after-the-fact via the capital markets?