Why Don't More Companies Use Prediction Markets?

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  pjmchugh@...04/28/08 Report as spam
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  Prediction Markets can be effective

  Our company, BitInsight, utilizes prediction markets as a component of a consulting services offering. Our experience supports your 3 obstacles to enterprise adoption: lack of familiarity with the concept, internal friction, and implementation issues. The first and third are addressable via good design (asking the right questions and finding and maintaining traders) and communication (even if you hire external consultants one of the first things they do is gather information from employees and other constituents) however the internal friction obstacle is more intractable. By their nature prediction markets are highly visible within the company including the nature of questions asked and the responses received. While the prediction market results are just one of many inputs into management's decisions their broad visibility can create difficulties when management's decisions appear to deviate from the "collective wisdom."