Know When It's Time to Bail

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  ChristopherSorge04/10/08 Report as spam
  1

  Please correct the spelling errors...

  This is a great article and one whose ideas I share but you must be careful about your spelling.
  
  Regards,
  
  Christopher R. Sorge

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
  2

  Apologies

  Sorry, Christopher:
  This post has been problematic for me and I've been editing it off and on since I posted it. You probably saw it in a state of flux. I think I've got it where I want it now, though.
  Geoffrey

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  victor.dornescu04/10/08 Report as spam
  3

  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Forced comparison - DEC case it's about money and careers - **** that; while with Irak it is about lives and human rights.
  Still the present solution stinks - because the army is a sword not a scapel !!! And the worst enemy in a war is the war itself...

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
  4

  Comparison Forced?

  The reason that the comparison isn't forced, at least for me, is that the two situations "feel" the same. I've learned to trust those feelings.
  
  For example, I was one of only two high tech journalists in 1998 who were writing that Y2K disasters were a hoax. The reason I read that situation correctly was that the statements being made about Y2K disasters sounded and "felt" like the "end of the world" nonsense from fringe evangelical groups.
  
  People are people. Organizations are organizations. Politics is politics, whether in a government or a corporation. I've learned more about the reasons behind organizational behavior in corporations from reading about political history than I've ever learned from reading business books.

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  jomill200004/10/08 Report as spam
  5

  What is success?

  No one can tell me what defines success in Iraq. Like two of my failed marriages, we are chasing some ill defined dream, and have no idea as to where we are going.
  
  Bush drew a bad hand during 911, but he continues to ante up when he knows that he does not have the cards. Unfortunately, he's playing with my money.
  
  Get the hell out and do it now!

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  kevinwilliams04/10/08 Report as spam
  6

  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Geoffrey - great blog & good analysis that cognitave dissonance was the problem back at DEC. It creates blinders or colored lenses that prevent us from seeing any facts that contradict our view.
  
  I believe you've got it only half-right when applying it to Iraq. Cognitave dissonance is preventing liberals opposed to Bush from being able to acknowledge or accept any good news from the war, even with General Petraeus testimony in front of them.
  
  They've whipped themselves into a frenzy that prevents clear thought. A premature US withdrawal would lead to genocide worse than the Khmer Rouge Killing Fields (they killed 1.7 m Cambodians, over 20% of population). Given Iraq's 27 m, 20% could amount to over 5 million deaths.
  
  Nobody likes the cost in American lives and money, but 4000 is only 0.1% of 5 m, and it is cognitave dissonance that prevents Bush haters from seeing that,(even as they profess their concern for lives of innocent Iraquis who will be killed).

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
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  Response

  Your comments in italics, my response in normal font.
  
  I believe you've got it only half-right when applying it to Iraq. Cognitave dissonance is preventing liberals opposed to Bush from being able to acknowledge or accept any good news from the war, even with General Petraeus testimony in front of them.
  
  I think the problem here is that the good news isn't really all that good. Simply stabilizing the situation doesn't seem to justify the extraordinary expense. A trillion dollars ain't chump change.
  
  They've whipped themselves into a frenzy that prevents clear thought. A premature US withdrawal would lead to genocide worse than the Khmer Rouge Killing Fields (they killed 1.7 m Cambodians, over 20% of population). Given Iraq's 27 m, 20% could amount to over 5 million deaths.
  
  That's just guesswork on your part, with some numbers attached to make it sound credible. A quick withdrawal might also result in a sharp, short, ugly civil war and the emergence of a Saddam clone who imposes order. Or it might result in a rapid de-facto partition of the country into three ethnic regions. Given the history of the region, either of these scenarios is more likely than the worst-case scenario you're presenting.
  
  Nobody likes the cost in American lives and money, but 4000 is only 0.1% of 5 m, and it is cognitave dissonance that prevents Bush haters from seeing that,(even as they profess their concern for lives of innocent Iraquis who will be killed).
  
  Since your original figure of potential Iraqi dead is evidence-less guesswork, your argument is weak. Also, the 4000 figure discounts the 60,000 non-fatal casualties, as well as the lost opportunity costs of fighting in Iraq when investment in other areas of the world (like Afghanistan) might be more productive in terms of pursuing our national interests.
  
  Finally, I might remark that your attempt to demonize "liberals" and "Bush haters" seems off kilter considering that these were the very people who warned that Iraq was a mistake from the start.

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  mfleck6404/10/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Stick to sales rather than politics. Not what I come here to read (I have other political blogs for that purpose).

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
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  Politics=Sales

  The two are the same thing, a point I've made repeatedly in this blog.

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  reading04/10/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Love the article, you make a great case with the DEC story. Having spent years in my profession I can totally agree.
  
  Be careful making the military analogy,it's flawed thinking. Might be your opinion but you'll be hard pressed to show empirical data that will support your case. Sorry!

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
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  What emprical data...

  ...would you like to see?

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  tcherring04/10/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Geoffrey,
  
  Interesting reading. Significant difference, though, between the business world and war -- yes we are at war. we have staked the reputation of the United states on finishing the job we began. If we fail to follow through -- as we have in previous situations (Viet Nam anyone?)our credibility as a reliable ally is greatly eroded. Who would trust our word the next time we promise something? The General is correct, significant progress is being made. We can and must prevail -- for the people of Iraq, and the freee people around the world.
  
  T.C. Herring, Lt Colonel, USAF (RET) (Viet Nam 70-71)

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
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  Oh, I don't know...

  You don't explain who these "allies" are whom we need to keep happy. The Maliki government? I think they're the allies of Iran, not the United States. The Sunni militias? If we weren't paying them, they'd be shooting at us. The Kurds? That makes more sense, but only justifies a presence in Kurdistan.
  
  Or maybe you mean our traditional allies, like Great Britain, France, Germany? All of them (including GB now) think we're making things worse by staying. True friends are saddened when they see their friends doing stupid, counterproductive things.
  
  As for Vietnam, you've got the story exactly backwards. The real problem wasn't that we "lost." The problem was was getting involved in a civil war, halfway around the world, in a place that we didn't understand, under false pretenses, for half-baked ideological reasons combined confused ideologically-driven paranoia. (Sound familiar?)
  
  North Vietnam was never a threat to the United States, nor was it ever in our true national interests to prop up South Vietnam as a client state. You can't win a war when winning has no meaning, because the conflict doesn't make any sense. And that's pretty much where I think we are in Iraq.

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  jsmithonline04/10/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Keep in mind the Iraq analogy is a two way street. Its just as likely that those who want to pull out troops may just as well have fallen victim of cognitive dissonance.

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/11/08 Report as spam
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  Excellent Point

  It's hard to be objective when dealing with such emotional issues. Interestingly, there's a political penalty to overcoming cognitive dissonance and actually changing your views. Do that, and you'll probably be accused of flip-flopping.
  
  Maybe we need to change the definition of "flip-flopping" to mean holding viewpoint "A", then viewpoint "opposite of A" (the "flip") and then BACK to viewpoint "A" (the flop.) Then when you change your opinion once, you can only be accused of being a "flipper" rather than a "flip-flopper."
  
  What's most important, though, if you're going to be a "flipper" you must be able to explain your porpoise in doing so.

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  Jaksoy@...04/10/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Psych terminology should be put it in context. Cognitive dissonance refers to discomfort felt at a discrepancy between new information and what you already believe. The more committed one is to prior knowledge, the more resistant one is to new information. Additionally, "groupthink" is a term coined by Irving Janis in 1972. Although groupthink IS a collective mindset, it is based on the 'manipulation' of information - not based on facts - that directly causes bad decisions.

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/10/08 Report as spam
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  Good point...

  ...about cognitive dissonance.
  
  The behavior that I saw at DEC qualifies as cognitive dissonance because when reality intruded (in the form of real market data) it simply hardened everyone into trying to make the fantasy strategy work. Over time, the entire company became almost impervious to reality.
  
  Something similar has happened in the Bush Administration when it comes to Iraq. Since there's no possible way that the current outcome justifies the expense and lost opportunity, the intrusion of reality (like in the sharp increase in violence since December and the failure of the Maliki government's incursion at Basra) simply hardens Bush into thinking that his strategy is working.
  
  As for the use of "group think" it may not be appropriate for DEC, since they talked themselves into that strategy without the intrusion of any data, real or fake. However, if we're to believe the Bush administration, they were fooled into thinking that there were WMD by lousy intelligence, so "group think" may be an apt terminology.

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  gcushing04/11/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  As we learned in business school, we are not considering investments, but rather sunk costs. Stop throwing away money.

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  bcottun@...04/11/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Goodbye Bnet, I used your site as a resource for technical and business information. It is dissapointing to see it become a shill forum for liberal politik.

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/11/08 Report as spam
  20

  Why? Why? Why...

  ...must you make my life so difficult??
  
  Your willingness to reject the top source of practical business information on the Internet because one blogger expressed a political opinion contrary to your own clearly identifies you as being from the ranks of top management.
  
  Since you are therefore the type of person that BNET is trying to attract, I'll probably have to write a personal letter to every one of our advertisers, telling them that they can no longer count on getting a piece of your hefty budget into their quarterly revenues.
  
  That's a lot of extra work for me!

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  rr1165@...04/11/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it!"
  
  When will "Geoffrey James" and clueless, self-serving, hypocritical parasites stop feeding on the United States of America? I bet he has a framed copy of Chamberlain's peace pact with Germany including Herr Hitler's signature right next to his own bastardized version of the US Constitution.

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/11/08 Report as spam
  22

  Thank You!

  Your thoughtful, well-reasoned rebuttal of my post gives me faith in the future of intelligent debate in this country.
  
  Bravo!

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  wrl500@...04/11/08 Report as spam
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  I agree with Bcottun...

  Stick with the topics at hand - like business. Leave out the crap discussions and take your bloody polls elsewhere...but in this case...I'll do the same, "GOOD BY Bnet...and the same for you Mr. Sales Champ James." (you'll see my unsbscribe in a few minutes)

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/11/08 Report as spam
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  Liberal Shill?

  Gee, never had a watercooler discussion about politics at work?
  
  I notice you didn't complain when I was making fun of Hillary (and running a poll) about lying to close a deal:
  
  http://blogs.bnet.com/salesmachine/?p=274

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  johnrg04/11/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Both are good illustrations of cognitive dissonance. Polaroid is another. Even
  after introducing the first digital camera, the "team" remained totally committed
  to instant photography in spite of their own success with digital photography.
  Reportedly, "the pod gets the nod" was the corporate mantra. So, second
  generation digital camera R&D funds were denied. Kodak, on the other hand,
  saw their future in imaging, not film...no cognitive dissonance.

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  Geoffrey James, Sales Machine04/11/08 Report as spam
  26

  Polaroid...

  ...funny you should mention it.
  
  I actually played a personal role in the decline of Polaroid. If I had been a little more convincing on the telephone with their head of HR, they might never have hired the guy responsible for the company's failure to adapt to the digital era.
  
  I'll have to tell that story in the blog someday, since it's pretty funny. And because the guy is still around, now positioning himself as an "angel investor."

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  williamcavalier@...05/03/08 Report as spam
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  RE: Know When It's Time to Bail

  Vietnam bailout a success!!!??? After USA left Vietnam, no further Americans died---SUCCESS!!! Unfortunately 3 million locals were murdered in Laos & Cambodia. SUCCESS???