Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions). You have a question from the line of Edward Wolfe of Wolfe Research. Please proceed.
Edward Wolfe - Wolfe Research
What does it mean that there is a peak? In terms of volumes in October to-date and September versus a year-over-year in July and August, what are you seeing as a pickup when you say there's some equipment shortages and you really feel the peak?
Dave Yeager
Well, in Southern California, in particular, we are seeing equipment shortage although and really is beginning to affect the entire country. It's just that the retailers appear to be restocking their shelves to some extent. We're seeing a lot of increase in Mexico. There is just more consumer products.
So we have products that are sold in retail stores as well as consumer products that appear to be being shipped right now. It’s always seasonal as the retail stores begin to stock their shelves for the holiday season that we would normally see this type of an increase. We’ve seen it as early as August 15 and those late as through January of next year. We just don’t know how long this is going to go at this point, but it certainly is a peak right now.
Edward Wolfe - Wolfe Research
When did it began and how do you think of since we didn’t have a peak a year ago, how the volumes are improving as you go year-over-year, how it is so far in October and how are they, can you take us through September and August and July that kind of thing, how it’s ramped up?
Dave Yeager
Well, they did improve through January, August and September and continue to improve thus far in.
Terri Pizzuto
Yes. Through July, August, and September, they did every month. They went up ahead. It’s too early in October to tell you how we’re doing, because we only have measurements through 15 days of October. It certainly looks better. So what we think fourth quarter will be down between 4% and 8% with intermodal volumes.
Edward Wolfe - Wolfe Research
That’s relative to the minus 9 year-over-year in third quarter?
Terri Pizzuto
Correct. We think right. So we think when you compare fourth quarter ’08 to fourth quarter ’09 will be down between 4% and 8% and we were down 9% in Q3.
Edward Wolfe - Wolfe Research
As things have tightened, are the rails and/or are you putting in any kind of peak surcharges?
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