Affiliated Computer Services Inc. F4Q08 (Qtr End 06/30/08) Earnings Call Transcript

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2008-08-07 19:22:13.0

Tags: Affiliated Computer Services Inc.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Julio Quinteros of Goldman Sachs. Please ask your question.

Vincent Lin - Goldman Sachs

Hi, this is actually Vincent Lin sitting for Julio. Maybe you can discuss a little bit more about the volume sensitivity of your model, and since we actually saw some negative impact from the transportation business, could you maybe quantify what is potential revenue business basis for both your commercial and your government segment on the volume sensitivity of your model, and specifically for the transportation segment; what is your expectations about a potential recovery in terms of timing?

Lynn Blodgett

Yes, great. Thanks. Good question, Vincent. Our model is very sensitive to transaction volumes. 75% of our revenue is generated from transaction volumes that we handle day in, day out. Now, having said that, in a typical year those transaction volumes tend to flush out and increased transaction volumes in one part of the business can be offset by decreases in others.

I think one of the issues that we had, and why we could not overcome the transaction volumes this quarter, was really because of the weak fiscal year '07 bookings. If you think about it, we had about $600 million of bookings in '07 and that was awfully low.

With our business model, you feel the impact of those bookings in the subsequent year, and there was really no margin for moving around on the volumes because of the weak fiscal '07 bookings. Tom, do you want to add some on transportation?

Tom Burlin

Sure. Specifically to transportation, Vincent, we were obviously surprised. This is an unprecedented increase in gas prices, but we have watched gas prices increase over several decades and have seen this market to be fairly inelastic, and that driver miles have continued to increase at about a 6% rate year-over-year. In this past quarter for the first time in three decades, we saw the first decline in driver miles.

In our transportation business that affected us to the tune of about $7 million. The good news is, we have already started to see the July volumes come in. They seem to have stabilized and even increased a little bit. So, we are perhaps seeing the effect of the drastic change and maybe some lightening of the gas prices start to stabilize in that market.

Lynn Blodgett

Let me also add that, obviously, we have had a great year of bookings with $800 million in this year. Obviously, that will generate, I would kind of walk through for you, but that should generate pretty good growth just by itself going into fiscal '09.

 

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