Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. (Operator Instructions). Please limit your self to one question and then requeue for additional questions.
Our first question comes from the line of C.J. Muse with Barclays Capital. Please go ahead.
C.J. Muse - Barclays
Hi, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. Steve, I thought what you discussed in terms of the idle capacity, pretty interesting. I guess as part of that are you referring solely to 300 millimeter memory capacity? And then, as part of that, you talked about how the revenue opportunity was roughly half of what it would be if there was new equipment? And I guess, could you also add to that part of the conversation, what the impact is of double-patterning and growing the market there for edge? And overall, what the revenue dollar could look like?
Stephen Newberry
Yeah, what I talked about the idle wafer starts, we're talking about wafer starts. It's almost exclusively 300 millimeter now. But, it is 300 millimeter equipments. But there's not much 200 millimeter wafer start. And I was talking about memory.
The 45 to 50% down is again referring to memory. There is some reduction in reuse in non-memory activities, although it's not as extensive, because you don't have the same level of idled wafer starts that they want to convert.
Typically, what will happen, when you see demand rise and the overall utilization in the memory fab goes up, you probably have about 20% reuse and 80% new equipment purchases. And that depends on the customer and that depends on how fast they're converting. But, we anticipate that in 2009, there'll be about 250,000 wafer starts needed at the 5X and some early 4X DRAM. And some were around a 150 to 175,000 wafer starts, NAND at 3X node.
And I think the reuse activity in NAND is probably higher than it is in DRAM. But, I do anticipate that as we move into 2010, that we'll see that the amount of reuse will start to decline and over the next couple of years, we'll start to see that the spending in memory will be 75 or 80% new equipment. So that represents a significant opportunity for increased wafer fab equipment investment.
As it relates to double-patterning, clearly you're going to have some additional edge steps, that's factored in to how we look at the total sides of the market. We think that if you have to buy all new equipment for 10,000 wafer starts, the edge spending typically would need to be about 30 to 35 million for 10,000 wafer starts. And you'd have about for single-wafer clean, you'd end up with about a third of that or about 10 to 12 million per 10,000 wafer starts of new equipment capacity.
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