Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first questions comes from Ghansham Panjabi - Wachovia Capital.
Ghansham Panjabi - Wachovia Capital
In terms of your volume assumptions for ?09, looking at ?08 looks like volumes were down a couple percent, but the fourth quarter was down 7%. Why is it realistic to assume volumes will be down low single digits in 2009 when the global economy seems to be getting worse, not better?
William Hickey
Well, Ghansham, we sort of have taken two shots, maybe three shots at our budget and we’ve essentially brought some of the numbers down earlier to where we are now. Our assumption on low single-digit declines in 2009 are based on continued slowing through the first half of ?09 with a gradual but tepid recovery beginning in the second half of ?09.
Looking at the volume for the fourth quarter, I think I mentioned it twice during my prepared comments, and Dave may have covered just briefly is that, we have sensed fair amount of de-stocking on the part of customers as they’ve reduced their inventories.
We’ve actually seen inventory replacements at some of our customers not dramatically, but clearly the channel had gotten very low on inventory as they ended 2008.
Ghansham Panjabi - Wachovia Capital
Okay. And just as a follow-up question, looking at your U.S. business versus the international business and just the phase of the business cycle if you will, where do you think we are internationally including Europe, but referring more specifically to Asia-Pacific and Latin America?
William Hickey
I will give you sort of the quick summary is that the U.S. is still declining. In Europe, I actually bifurcate England and the rest of Europe. England, I actually think is sliding faster than the U.S. Europe is catching up to the U.S. pretty quickly, pretty dramatically.
In Asia, you are seeing spill over from the U.S. You’re seeing spill over in Latin America. The numbers for the year in both China and Latin America as you heard me say except for Brazil and Latin America were still up, and their numbers through the fourth quarter were still positive, but not by much.
Operator
Your next question comes from George Staphos - Banc of America Securities.
George Staphos - Banc of America Securities
I just wanted to piggyback on Ghansham’s question regarding volume trends. What assumption do you have built into North American red meat consumption for 2009, Bill? It would seem from some of the data we have seen that there is a bit of a slowing here and with the consumer perhaps pinched more than they were even in 2008 that we might see something worse than a low single-digit decline within red meat within North America as a follow-on?
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