Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions)
Unidentified Participant
? being up a few percent. Talking about the memory oversupply lasting no more than a couple of quarters. They are guiding September bookings flat, plus or minus. Should we take this as a sign that you see a positive momentum for your bookings in the out quarters, beyond September?
Rick Hill
Well, we never discuss beyond this quarter. You know, our ability to forecast the future is always limited. We try to do the best, we’ve tried to present to you some of the data we look at – not all of the data, there is additional data. There are external forces going on that we think have a positive impact in ’08. We’ve alluded to those from the standpoint of it is an election year, so you want to make sure the economy is going, no matter what party you are in.
Also, from a standpoint of the Olympics. Certainly China wants to display a lot of high tech capability at the Olympics in ’08, so there is still a substantial amount of spending there that is going to be driven; flat panel technology which is all going to be driven by semiconductor technology.
So I think ’08 stands to firm up. It also stands to firm up. It also stands to firm up because there's a lot of new product cycles coming out. We've got the iPhone, there's mixed results in the beginning but you also have coming out new computer technology with instant on, more solid state flash drives come out, which could lead to a very, very significant PC cycle, replenishment cycle.
It's also, while Vista has taken time to be absorbed in the marketplace, it's a freight train. You can't stop it. We still have not seen that impact on the DRAM market. So that's what leads us to the 2008 optimism.
Unidentified Participant
A real quick follow-up. You talked about a lot of new products here with higher productivity. Is your outlook for Q3 bookings, how much of that is embedding any significant share gains that might be uniquely helping your bookings in Q3? Thanks.
Rick Hill
Well, we'd like to get 100% share. It's just unfortunately not really likely because we just can't deliver it all in the third quarter.
I think that one of the things when you see this productivity -- and I think maybe everybody doesn't appreciate it -- but when you look at the productivity, Novellus has brought to the market, we shrunk a lot of markets. You look at the PVD market, we didn't have any PVD business before and it used to be close to a $5 billion business. Today it's a $1.5 billion business and we’ve shrunk it because we’ve taken a process that was doing 20 wafers an hour and a $7.5 million machine, and we've taken it to a $5.5 million machine and 75 to 80 wafers per hour; so it shrinks the market.
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