Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. [Operator Instructions]. Your first question is from Bob Koort with Goldman Sachs.
Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs
Thanks. Good morning. Jeff, I was wondering if you can talk a little bit about your return on capital expectations for the new Chinese Ti02 plant in light of choppier conditions that are in that market at the moment.
Jeffrey L. Keefer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Well, Bob, first of all, I don't have any change in our expectation on returns on capital in that business. You got to, as you know, look at that business over a long term framework, where you are in a low cost position in that business. That's an excellent investment for us and I expect the returns to be very good.
Robert Koort - Goldman Sachs
Can you discuss, maybe, what's caused such a challenge in getting prices up there. As the market leader it seems like you announced a few price hikes but we haven't so much traction. What's really going on there that's creating you problem?
Jeffrey L. Keefer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Well, Bob, I am not going to get into specific about pricing in Ti02, let me just say though that I think we really do deliver value to our customers in that marketplace, and I think you are going to see great performance out of that business going forward.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Bob it's, Chad, I'll like to just add, we're seeing more and more enforcement in higher standard for environmental compliance in China and we think that will bode very well for our process. It's extremely environmentally friendly. I'd just like to stress what Jeff said, is if we're going there, we can be a low cost producer and we think that bodes very well for growth in China and the neighboring countries too.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Don Carson with Merrill Lynch.
Donald Carson - Merrill Lynch
Just a question on the AG front, there has been some holdback in the rate of growth on ethanol. I think USDAs are calling for both flow rate number, 87 million acres of corn planted next year down from 94 million acres this year. What kind of a headwind does that create for the Pioneer turnaround efforts? And just... I know harvest isn't completed yet, but on your initial results you have any look at how you did on your yield comparisons versus your competitors this year in US corn?
Carl J. Lukach - Vice President, Investor Relation
Okay, John, thanks for those questions, as far as the acreage assumptions go for next year and how that mix goes. I think that the short answer to your question is not much of an impact. We're expecting another strong year, directionally, without number associated with it. We would support the USDA directional guidance that corn acres will be down as soy acres will be up. We've got exciting new products going into both crops. So, our outlook is strong for the total seed business there. Don't expect much swing factor there. In terms of the yield results for this year's harvest, I am sure you saw and a lot of people saw the USDA crop progress report yesterday, it's still early, 60% of the corn harvest is complete but only 40% in IOWA and some other key states. We are assembling, as we do, over 15,000 comparison tests, head-to-head comparison test to assemble our conclusions around yield. I don't want to go out with any preliminary answers there but we're compiling all that data right now.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Don, it's Chad, I just want to add that the international shares we expect to continue to increase next year like it did this.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Sirgay Vasmetzoff with Lehman Brothers.
Sirgay Vasmetzoff - Lehman Brothers
Good morning. You bought about 23 million shares this quarter and yet the average number count declined to 4 million sequentially. Does this mean that you bought shares late in September and hence the average number for the fourth quarter would be about 9 to10 million.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Sirgay the answer to your question is, yes, we did buy late in the third quarter, and we would expect our share count for the year to still be about 9.28 about 9.05 in the fourth quarter.
Sirgay Vasmetzoff - Lehman Brothers
Okay. And so generally speaking what are your thoughts on further share buyback in 2008?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
That's something that we just completed our share buyback for the... of the $5 billion dollars. I am not going to speculate about the future. I think we are living up to our principles, which is maintaining a strong balance sheet, returning excess cash to shareholders unless we have a compelling growth opportunity. As I commented earlier, over the last couple of years we've returned $9.2 billion of cash to shareholders.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Mike Judd with Greenwich Consultants.
Michael Judd - GreenwichConsultants
Yes. Good morning. It tend to... it sounds like you are not going to be allocating as much cash in the future to share repurchases, could you talk a little bit about your plans to invest in M&A, specially given that I guess down the road here in a few years we're going to have less earnings coming from the Pharmaceutical part of the business.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mike it's Chad. I wouldn't draw any conclusions about what we are going to do or not to do around share repurchase. I'll just reinforced what Jeff said that we don't have good uses internally that we are sure better will return cash to shareholders in the most appropriate way. I am excited about our current growth prospects for our current products. We announced the expansion of Kevlar. Previously in the year, we announced Nomex expansions. We see not only those markets improving but we see great applications. We will have some need for capital to... where we are getting tie-down capacity, we don't want to get behind there.
If you look at our track record on acquisitions, we're buying where we bring some really unique technology that we can put into our global distribution and get more value than the current owners will still look for that, but I wouldn't expect any marked change in our plan. I like what we've got there for bio base materials. I encourage on that 12 and 13 meeting, that we maybe you will see some very, very exciting things that we can grow and we've got options of growing, by putting some of our capital in or we get options by taking just the royalties technology. So, I like our odds and degrees of freedom to grow effectively to meet that 2010 date you throw out.
Michael Judd - GreenwichConsultants
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from David Begleiter with Deutsche Bank.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank
Thank you. Good morning. Chad, just on your Coatings businesses, given the progress in RONA and the challenges in OEM, you finish an industrial, are those businesses still long term core businesses for DuPont?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
David thanks for the question. I am very encouraged with the productivity improvement I see across all the Coatings businesses, that's where we're pioneering some of our DuPont production system work, where we're seeing real opportunities for yield improvement, quality improvement. I was just out with a group of Coatings customers last week, and they are really commenting about the water borne products, how good they are, how anxious they are to make the conversion. We've got tremendous value to continue to bring in this Coatings business, not to think about the next wave of products that may come. So, we are focused on increasing the value by improving the cash flow from these businesses. I am confident we will. This is an important business to the company.
David Begleiter - Deutsche Bank
Elevation and Coatings, Chad, do you think you will be a player in this trend going forward?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Do you think... If the question is, would we'll be a buyer in the Coatings area. You never rule anything out and if there is something of real unique specialty nature that we thought we brought some technology to, we'd certainly consider it. I think we're going to have more attractive opportunities in biotechnology, bio-based materials, enhancing our base there. There might be some good opportunities for other folks you never rule it out. But I really believe, as I look across the, our safety and protection product line, tremendous opportunities there. So, my guess is they will have higher returns in the Coatings acquisitions which never rule out.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Jeff Zekauskas with JP Morgan.
Jeffery Zekauskas - JP Morgan
Hi. Good morning.
Jeffery Zekauskas - JP Morgan
In both, Safety and Protection and Performance Materials, you showed double-digit operating income growth despite the very week domestic construction and auto markets. Can you quantify how much auto and domestic construction hurt you for the quarter and for the year, thus far?
Carl J. Lukach - Vice President, Investor Relation
Jeff, it's Carl. It's really coming out along the lines to what we predicted, and when Alan was on the call two quarters ago, about a $0.05 a share of headwind in this third quarter just ended, and that's consistent with the first two quarters that brings it to about $0.15 for the year, and I don't known that there is, we see anything different for that looking into the fourth quarter.
Jeffery Zekauskas - JP Morgan
And if I can have a follow-up, Monsanto is making a fuss about smart stack, and in your Materials for the quarter you talked about Herculex being stronger than YieldGard, and what Monsanto, obviously, wants to do is to take your Herculex traits and stock it on their traits. Do you have an answer to that or from a competitive standpoint what do you plan to do in 2010, if any?
Carl J. Lukach - Vice President, Investor Relation
Thanks for that, Jeff. We certainly do have an answer for that. We expect to be every bit as competitive, and actually the goal is to be superior to competitive offering. It's all of that weed control, insect control and fungus control. And we have a dual mode of action weed control product on the market today. We'll be the only supplier with that product offering for the next two seasons. That will go to three modes of action in 2010 in corn with a option of gas trait. In terms of fungus control, we'll be the first supplier out with a AMTRAK [ph] nose resistant trait in this coming season in 2008 in North America. And then in insect control we have a dual mode of action of product to line up with the competitors product and others, and we have other things in development as well. So, Jeff, short answer, Jeff, is we tend to be every bit as competitive and the goal is to be superior in 2010.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from PJ Juvekar with Citi.
Prashant Juvekar - Citigroup
Yes, hi, good morning. Couple of questions on AG. Given that ethanol pricing is down and is not profitable currently how does that change your outlook on Butanol?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
PJ, I think you are probably talking about ethanol in the US, is what that your question, PJ?
Prashant Juvekar - Citigroup
Yes.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Okay, because ethanol is a big product globally and we are in focus just on the US. If you are counting ethanol out in the US, it is a good product. I think you are declaring death way too soon. As you know our butanol project, our first scope now would be to be from wheat and be in the UK, and we have already made a minor investment in a plant, so we can line up there. We're extremely encouraged about the progress we are making on cellulose to ethanol, of course, we are not just a great ethanol player except in selling seed to that, which we think will still be very profitable. But we are happy with our progress in cellulose to ethanol. We are very pleased with our progress in bio-butanol. We look forward on the 12 and 13 to kind of update you on specific time lines and plans for that. So, I don't want to preempt the work we will be doing there. But I don't see anything in this current situation in ethanol in anyway the tract... the fact is it just encourages us more to move faster. I have been in a couple of conferences in the last month where clearly the demand for cellulose to ethanol and bio-butanol have been the headliners and we just see some tremendous demand from our customers there.
Prashant Juvekar - Citigroup
Okay. I mean, I am not declaring any death to it and all, I'm just pointing out that the profitability is down. But on to my second question on this agreement that you had with Monsanto recently, where you lowered the royalty payments and extended them into 2015, if you are confident about optimum gas rollout in 2010, I'm wondering why would you go all the way to 2015 in paying those royalties?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
PJ, let me be extremely clear. We are very confident about optimum gas in 2010, there has been nothing that happens around that to discourage us at all. This was a simple net present value calculation, because as you know we can't ramp up suddenly everything in 2010. It's going to take time. As we look at the economics, we think it makes sense for us and that's simply all there was. Absolutely no change in strategy.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Frank Mitsch with BB&T Capital Markets.
Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets
Good morning, gentlemen. A question regarding pricing in raw materials. Chad, you indicated that in 2008 raw material subside, you'll start to going to see some margin expansion. Your deficit right now in the third quarter was $0.03, you had $0.12 rose and $0.09 in higher prices, so $0.03. If you don't get raw materials subsiding you think you... when and if do you think you will be able to offset the higher raw materials with higher local pricing?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, Frank, a great question. The first obligation we got is to purchase better, smarter in better quantities, we're making progress there. The programs we have on yield and energy efficiency are very important to us. They're worth more to us that oil approach $90 per barrel, and so we see improvement to make our sell, but we've got, I don't know what all of our competitors have as far as the techniques for evaluating value and being explaining that to customers, but I know ours are really solid, and we've got to expand more and use them in all of the places but we are seeing is we are putting those skills and capabilities in our sales force and have the right incentives for those. We think we will be more effective in passing things along. I think it would be inappropriate to kind of judge what the net-net of that will, be because that's trying to incorporate too many variables. I would like to go back where you started. We're valuing these prices, we're not just pushers through a commodity. We have a few things like that but not very much.
The good thing is when these things subside, and they will someday, and I am not predicting when, clearly, we're going to be able to capture value longer than folks that just push things on a formula basis. So, we are not predicting that, we're certainly not assuming that in 2008 that will be upside if it happened.
Frank Mitsch - BB&T Capital Markets
All right. Terrific, and then more specifically on one of the slides you indicated in the Coating section that you anticipated a Ti02 price increases in the fourth quarter being a benefit, how confident are you that that's going to occur, and can you talk about the order of magnitude and what regions you may see that occur?
Jeffrey L. Keefer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Well, not so much on that later part, Frank, but really the point we needed to make is that the industry inventory levels were high, that has come down. These announced increases had been out awhile, and as you point out we have it as a plus variant on our fourth quarter outlook. So that's kind of how we think things are going there.
Operator
Thank you.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
We are not assuming an up-tick in US architecture, if that was behind your question, we are not assuming an uptake to get these price increases through.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from Kevin McCarthy with Banc of America Securities.
Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities
Yes, good morning. Jeff, your base tax rate has been drifting down throughout the course of the year. What is the base rate that is embedded in your outlook statement for 2008 earnings?
Jeffrey L. Keefer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes. The base will be especially you can call it right now, we will continue to look at this at about 26% for 2008, Kevin.
Kevin McCarthy - Banc of America Securities
Okay. And then shifting gears to agriculture, if I may. You had an announcement in September relating to your accelerated yield technology for soybeans with an advertised yield benefit of 12%, quite substantial there, how quickly can you penetrate that technology from the 5 varieties you outlined for '08 into the 100 plus that you have in your portfolio.
Jeffrey L. Keefer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
It's early stage, it is quite dramatic step change in what we see in the lab, I think that to be straight up with you on that, Frank, it's about three to five years in our pipeline projections. Kevin.
Operator
Your next question is from Mark Gulley with Soleil Securities.
Mark Gulley - Soleil Securities
Yes. Good morning. A couple of questions, first of all, you got a crack economics team at DuPont, guys, and I am wondering what they are saying about the bottom of the US housing market?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Mark, we do have a crack economics team, and if they fully knew that they probably wouldn't be working for us. It's really hard to call but as I said in my comments we are not assuming any recovery in 2008. I think that would be a very appropriate assumption. We model the inventory levels, the demand levels and so forth, and we could be wrong, there could be some intervention that would change that, but we're not assuming it, and that's why we are focused much more on, like this, new roof-liner product that I talked about and being sure we're taking the products like Tyvek and building the markets outside, including this personal protection areas.
Jeffrey L. Keefer - Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
I think, Robert and Bob, also another metric, Mark, that they look at it, inventory in the chain and I think their latest report I saw it's still looking at about... no new change of new homes of the value at month. So, that's I think holding back any optimism about a recovery.
Mark Gulley - Soleil Securities
Secondly, you noted your fungus size were strong in Latin America, I assume, in soy in Brazil. A lot of anecdotal evidence about Asian soy rust in United States, it is anecdotal. Any feeling that that pest want to migrate here and if so would it represent a meaningful opportunity for your fungicide business in North America.
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I can't say that there is any hard evidence of meaningful change in the crop this year with regard to that fungus this year, the disease. We do have the product offering ready to go as do a number of suppliers out, but I wouldn't say it's a sizable opportunity at this stage but we are ready if it does migrate.
Operator
Thank you. Your next question is from John Robert with Buckingham Research.
John Robert - Buckingham Research
Good morning, guys. It seems like the 5% range in your guidance for '08 growth, the 5% to 10%, is it relatively narrow range in light of a log of uncertainty out there in the economy and the surging raw material cost. And you got, actually, a pretty long lead time in terms of when raw materials hit your P&L side. I assume that's going to be an early '08 issue for you as well. You have any thoughts why that range is so narrow?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
John, it's Chad. We don't know for sure, where we're going to fit, that's a range off where we finish this year, and so we got a range on what we're going to do this year. So, it's really a little large than 5% to 10%, you think the total spread. We just felt it important because we do have a pretty good view of the global economy to go in and say something, and give a sense of what that is, we're not trying to imply super accuracy, but that's our best judgment right now, and that's, again, what we can do based on the productivity improvements. What we see in our new product pipeline coming out. So, we are not trying to suggest that's what the overall economy is going to do or what necessarily our competitors are going to do, but we feel like that is a good set of guidance for planning purposes for '08, and as we see something early next year or whenever, it's different, we'll certainly update you. As you recall, we came out with a number about this same time last year and it held pretty to the year. It looks like it might be up slightly. I guess, we started at 3.15, now we are 3.15 to 3.20. So, we are up a bit, but... So, I don't want to say, we'll necessarily be that accurate again next year but our track record for one year is not too bad.
John Robert - Buckingham Research
Do, you think the increased variabilization of your cost and your more aggressive pricing stance is kind of giving you better control over things?
Charles O. Holliday, Jr. - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, everything looks perfect, if you assume it's just going to project in the future. Right now, as basically as I said in my comments, we expect a continuation of '07 and '08 and with that assumption we think that 5 to 10 is not a bad number to be looking at particularly at this point in time. What I'm particularly pleased with are these yield improvement programs, the better sourcing programs and the sophistication we are putting into price across the entire company, and again the growth outside the US. If you can have a chance to just see the quality of people that we have hired in these emerging markets, they are second to none anywhere in the world, any country in the world. I am just pretty confident about what they can accomplish.
Carl J. Lukach - Vice President, Investor Relation
Jackie, I think that does it for our call. We have run out of time. I think what we will do is end the call now and I'll thank everyone for dialing in. Remind them that we have the investor event on applied biosciences on November 12th and 13th here at Wilmington. As always the IR team is here to answer any follow-up questions that you have.
Thank you very much for joining us today.
Operator
Thank you. This does conclude today's DuPont conference call. You may now disconnect.
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