Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions). We will take our first question from Joshua Raskin - Barclays Capital.
Joshua Raskin - Barclays Capital
Shawn, Good luck and congrats on the next stage; two questions, first, you mentioned a little bit of a flu in the Medicaid business and maybe an expectation for 4Q, can you break out what the actual dollar amounts were and by segment would be even more helpful?
Shawn M. Guertin
I’m going to give you sort of a loss ratio impact and if you don’t have the revenue you can figure out the dollars; it was actually very minor overall in the third quarter, in fact, the levels in July and August were minimal and we saw a fairly dramatic uptake in September, and so let me give you some numbers to frame that; so, the actual quarterly impact, July, August, September was virtually non-existent on Medicare, was probably worth about 10 basis points on commercial and about 30 basis points on Medicaid; now, I hope this doesn’t confuse you, if you just looked at September, if you had had three Septembers, commercial would have probably been double about 20 bps, and then Medicaid would have been more like 70 bps; so, just to be clear, the first set of numbers is what we actually saw. While we’re on this topic, I want to talk to you about how we though about this and why I think we have at least head-room for something nothing short of an epidemic or a pandemic rather. What we did in the fourth quarter is actually a look at that September level and we actually sort of modeled out 4 times that September level for the whole fourth quarter as we worked through our estimates; so, we probably have something approaching 100 basis points in our commercial estimate and we probably have something approaching 300 basis points on Medicaid.
Joshua Raskin - Barclays Capital
So, nothing in Medicare though?
Shawn M. Guertin
No, when I go back to why we didn’t assume that the Medicare favorability would recur, that was in the back of my head; we haven’t had any experienced that this is going to be an issue yet on Medicare, again it did seem that prudence was in order though to at least give yourself some head-room if it did start to show up in Medicare as well.
Allen F. Wise
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