Ruth's Hospitality Group, Inc. Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

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2009-07-31 10:44:18.0

Tags: Wells Fargo & Co., Call Transcript, Earnings, Ruth, Security, Seeking Alpha, Ruth's Chris Steak House Inc.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. (Operator Instructions) We’ll go to Jeff Omohundro, Wells Fargo Securities.

Jeffrey Omohundro - Wells Fargo Securities

Thanks. Just a couple of questions. First, I guess from a big picture standpoint considering the evolution of average check and your menu tests, such as the bistro menu, where do you think the right average check, given the macro environment for Ruth’s Chris will really settle out at? When you think about unit economics, perhaps at a lower AUV, how should we think about that in terms of returns in AUV needed to restart growth down the road? Thanks.

Mike O’Donnell

Yeah. Jeff, Mike. The thing about the average guest check, I think there’s a number of -- well, first of all, I think that the marketplace will sort of dictate that, but I think it’s interesting that we are seeing the success we’ve had with our price certainty. I will remind you that it’s 39.95 and there is an opportunity to buy up to 49.95. I think, again, as I’ve said, there are some price certainty issues with that and we really feel like in the feedback we’ve gotten and research we’ve done is that the consumer really appreciates that. So, if you will, that’s a value proposition for us.

I think that we still have our special occasion diners that are comfortable with spending at a -- maybe a -- what I would say a premium level certainly to our offering. So I think that as the mix settles in, we will see that. I think that the guest check average is probably going to be in this range. It may trade down a couple more dollars, it may go up a couple more dollars based on seasonality, but as I look at it today, I think that’s probably where we are.

Jeffrey Omohundro - Wells Fargo Securities

So, if it stays in this range, then I guess you get a sense for where AUVs settle out and what returns at these levels might look like.

Mike O’Donnell

Yes. Jeff, we’ve done a lot of work around that. I’ll let Bob speak to it.

Bob Vincent

Good morning, Jeff. I guess I would tell you that if you look at the run rate over the last several quarters, the AUVs have certainly come back from where they were historically. But we model this thing out in -- call it the 4-3 to 4-5 range, and we believe that even with those lower volumes on an annualized basis, we can still produce store level cash flows in the, call it 750 to $850,000 range, and on a percentage basis call that probably 18%, 19%. We think those are still pretty strong unit economics.

 

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