Discover Financial Services F1Q09 (Qtr End 2/28/09) Earnings Call Transcript

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2009-03-19 11:05:37.0

Tags: Discover Financial Services, Call Transcript, Earnings, Loss Rate, Balance Sheets, Litigation, Asset Management, Financial Statements, Financial Accounting, Finance, Business Operations, Operational Planning, Seeking Alpha

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from line of Eg Roshan (ph) from Omega. Please proceed.

Unidentified Analyst

Good morning. Thank you for taking my call. I've got some basic questions on the IO write downs. You took 98 million of those, I guess, part of as you said was point some of the asset-backed balance sheet, it was relative to higher loss rates. And I was just wondering, what are the loss rates you are now expecting for the trust? And I guess, over what timeframe are you expecting those losses to be incurred?

Roy Guthrie

Yeah, I think the loss rates that would be resonant in this estimate are consistent with what you heard us sort of outlined in terms of guidance for the second quarter and beyond, so in the mid 7 to 7.5% range. The breakdown of the two component pieces, I'd say rate compression is around 80% of the write-down and the volume attributes associated with the $3 billion in maturities is around 20% of the write-down.

Unidentified Analyst

Okay, excellent. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Sanjay Sakhrani from KBW. Please proceed.

Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Hi thanks. I think you guys have some pretty good -- a pretty good sense of kind of what's in store for the next six months as far as credit is concerned. I was wondering if you could give us some color as to what your expectations are, kind of looking out to the third quarter on credit, please?

David Nelms

Well, Sanjay, I think things have actually moved fairly rapidly in terms of unemployment rates. And so that's one reason we're only forecasting one quarter out at this time. Our base expectation would be that loss has continued to rise through the year, but we would expect a slower quarter-over-quarter increase than what we've been seeing in the last two quarters.

But I would say that it's more uncertain than it normally is. I mean one of the other wild cards is potential legislative changes. If a bankruptcy cramdown law passed and if it was brought, then that would obviously have an impact that we couldn't foresee sitting here today.

Sanjay Sakhrani - Keefe, Bruyette & Woods

Now understood. I mean I think -- I mean I guess what's your sense on that cramdown legislation? I mean is it -- it seems like the latest talk has been something less onerous on unsecured lenders?

 

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