Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. (Operator instructions). We'll take our first question from Dave Kistler with Simmons & Company.
Dave Kistler – Simmons & Company
Good morning, guys.
Aubrey McClendon
Good morning.
Dave Kistler – Simmons & Company
Quick question with respect to the hedging that you outlined in this call and previously that you're taking the fact of being offensive versus defensive with respect to laying on hedges. Barring the attractive carries you guys have in the Fayetteville, Marcellus, would you think about that a little bit differently and irregardless of those at what price would you look at considering hedging?
Aubrey McClendon
I don't think our hedging is impacted by our carries. Our hedging is impacted by long developed strategy that Mark and I've had and Jeff has joined us in recent years in trying to hedge prices that create value rather than limit value creation, and I think some companies that for example, wouldn't hedge $8 gas in 2010, a year or two ago. It's a little curious that they are eager to hedge $5.50 or $6 gas lately. And I reiterate [ph] the markets and Jeff has a very extensive and we think accurate production model for the entire U.S. and includes Canadian input as well. We think that leads us to the inescapable conclusion that gas production will be down significantly in months and quarters ahead and we think that will present us with ample opportunities. And so, if we wanted to just go hedge, we can hedge, but we think there's more to hedging than just simply executing the hedge. We think you need to do it at the right time and we haven't felt like the right time has arrived yet.
Dave Kistler – Simmons & Company
Great. That's helpful. And then kind of thinking about Jeff's model that you highlight, if we look at the most recent 914 data, obviously, we're seeing kind of lumpy results month over month. Any thoughts or any changes regarding sort of the anticipated rollover that you've outlined for 2010 as the real rollover year versus 2009 and do you equate that, the fact that it's been pushed out a little bit to efficiencies or is there some sort of high grading of portfolio, just kind of your conceptual thoughts that would be helpful.
Aubrey McClendon
I'll give you a couple and turn it over to Jeff for his analysis. But I think we've been reasonably consistent over the past six months we thought we would see declines in the fourth quarter of 2009 that you're not going to see public confirmation of that until 2010, but I think Jeff model for some time has shown a bottoming of gas production on a year-over-year basis, let's call it, the late first quarter, early second quarter of 2010, and then those decline continue throughout 2010 to get to an absolute trough of production some time in the first half of 2011.
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