Dominion Resources, Inc. Q2 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

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2009-07-31 12:17:20.0

Tags: Commodity Price, Call Transcript, Earnings, Range, Dominion Resources Inc., Seeking Alpha

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator instructions). Our first question comes from Hugh Wynne with Sanford Bernstein.

Tom Farrell

Good morning, Wayne.

Hugh Wynne -- Sanford Bernstein

Good morning. Wonder if you could help me understand a little bit the premises for the 2010 revised guidance. I understand that we're cutting the earnings growth outlook from 4% to 6% to 0% to 3%, partly reflecting the expected outcome of the Dutco [ph] rate case, partly reflecting the level of gas prices. You're assuming $6.75 gas to $7.25 gas if I heard you correctly. And I also understand from your disclosures that you are about 60% hedged with respect to your power sales in New England. So I guess the first part of my question is why this relatively high expected gas price, let's say $7 on average, relative to the forward strip of $6? And then secondly, if you perhaps could elaborate a little bit on the expected impact of the Dutco rate case on the earnings outlook for next year?

Mark McGettrick

Hugh, this is Mark. Let me take first part of that. In terms of the commodity price outlook, even in the second quarter of this year, gas prices approached the bottom of our range and bumped up on the $6.75. And we were able to take advantage of that both on coal and gas and a few Millstone hedges. We mentioned a number of times that we protected ourselves on the front end of 2010. And so based on the production information we see out there, we think it's still a reasonable assumption that gas could get into $6.75 to $7.25 range next year. Now granted, that may occur later in the year than what we originally thought and that's why we've been protecting ourselves on the front end. But we still believe that $6.75 to $7.25 is going to occur in 2010. And if it does so that our open positions at the end of next year will take advantage of that.

As far as the rate case, we considered the rate case, we considered commodity prices, and we considered what our view was on financing cost next year and what our opportunities might be on expense costs. And in aggregate, we decided it was prudent at this time to adjust our range. Even though as I said in the text, it is certainly possible we could still reach the old range depending what the outcome is along all those lines. On the rate case, our range assumes a range of potential outcomes from the regulatory proceeding, which we don't know exactly what they will be, but we tried to reflect orders to-date in a range and what we think are reasonable outcomes going forward. We also mentioned 0% to 3% in terms of growth rate, that really is going to depend on where we come in this year, so I don't know how your math worked, but that growth rate again could be higher than that depending on what the final orders look like, what final commodity prices look like, and where we finish in our range for 2010.

 

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