Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question or comment comes from Joe Allman with JP Morgan. You have the floor.
Joseph Allman - JP Morgan
Thank you, good morning everybody.
Jonny Brumley
Good morning.
Joseph Allman - JP Morgan
Hey Jonny, when looking at the economics for the middle Bakken Three Forks Sanish, could you just talk about what you’re thinking there? Do you factor in your hedges when you think about the economics?
And I know you said you’re using a model of 250,000 BOE/EURs ,given the results have you upped that EUR estimate in your model and are you using something like a $5 million cost? Can you just kind of take us through your thinking there, and at what point did you keep those numbers in your model, what point might that play not be very economic?
Jonny Brumley
Well, we believe the play will be economic at least down to $50 a barrel, but we are contemplating in certain areas taking that model up from 250,000 barrels, especially as we're seeing better and better results in our new area. So you could see that increase especially as we keep getting results like.
And then, the third-party accretion we don't really use the hedges on the AFE economics because we're going to get that cash flow from the hedges regardless of whether we do the project or not.
Joe Allman - JP Morgan
Yes, that's helpful. And on the cost side, what are recent costs looking like? And what do you use in your model?
Jonny Brumley
Recent costs have been $5 million a well. We drilled three different types of wells, but basically they’re $4.5 million to $5.5 million. That’s about $600,000 or $700,000 a well higher than at the beginning of 2008 and we expect to see prices probably get closer to that 2008 level, but we're not budgeting for that in case they don't.
Joe Allman - JP Morgan
Okay. That's good. And then is the recent focus on more middle Bakken or more on Three Forks Sanish?
Jonny Brumley
Both. We've drilled -- I think it's -- the recent focus has been on the Sanish, but I think that that's more coincidence. In the third quarter three of the four were Sanish, but we still think the world of the Middle Bakken too.
Joe Allman - JP Morgan
Got you. Okay, and then in terms of play, what plays look less economically attractive here given the current pricing and the current costs and which ones kind of just -- which ones do you think are most marginal in your portfolio?
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