Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Glenn Garmont with Broadpoint Capital.
Glenn Garmont - Broadpoint Capital
Thanks, good morning. Just two quick questions. Dave as I think about the first quarter guidance that you just provided, looks like the year is a bit more backend loaded than 2007 was. I know you touched upon it briefly, but what's behind that. Is that primarily driven by the ramp up of some of these new commercial contracts that will sort of replace the wind down of the Novartis business? And then sort of related to that and the year being backend loaded I mean how much of your guidance is under contract today versus how much still needs to come out of the pipeline. I'm just trying to get a sense for your actual visibility, your actual business under contract as of today? Thanks.
Dave Bassin
Sure Glenn. First of all, I mean as we look at what our total visibility is. We have very good visibility into 2008 with over 90% of our business contracted today. As you look at the ramp up that you are alluding to, I think that that's definitely to look at it is looking at three buckets of activities that are driving the difference between Q1 and then the driver up to Q2. One is seasonality, things like pay roll taxes which will mostly unwind during Q1. Some of the other seasonal items like the recurring year end analytics projects we get as well as incentive fees will occur a little bit later on the year.
Then there is the Novartis timing lag, which you have already alluded to and the third piece is the expenses associated with and the related ramp up of new business. The business that we have already wanted ramping up today and will obviously be at full stream entering into Q2 and that coupled with new wins that will come out of our $400 million pipeline that we announced earlier today will also be a driver.
So this three buckets are items that affect Q1 that will mostly unwind at the end of Q1 and then as we go into Q2 and the rest for the year. Then to add to that as we've discussed previously we have the significant expansion on our on-boarding programs, which we are expecting to double by midyear.
So if you take step back and say first and second half historically about 40% to 45% of our earnings have come in the first half of the year. As we look at 2008 we don’t think this can be drastically different it will probably be 35% to 40% coming in the first half as a result of the Q1 dynamics.
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