Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session, (Operator Instructions). Our first question comes from Rich Kwas, Wells Fargo. Your line is now open.
Richard Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Hi, good morning guys.
Stephen Roell
Good morning Rich.
R. Bruce McDonald
Hi Rich.
Richard Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Question on auto, 2.2% margin, very strong showing given your guidance for 2010, 1.3 to 1.6% margin. Realizing the business is seasonal, how should we think about that going forward? It seems like the guidance is fairly conservative and I know your comments were that you want to be conservative at this point. But just some more color on that would be helpful.
Stephen Roell
Well Rich, this is Steve. Let me start. I think that we are talking about a recovery I the auto build in fiscal '10, but I think if you look at even the first quarter of the one that we are currently in, our first fiscal quarter, production estimate to be down 6% year-over-year. So what we are saying is that we expect to see that the build up 13-14% but we are going to start in whole the right out of the box. So I think as Bruce indicated we just want to see where the consumer is and if we see stronger demand then we hope you are right. Then we hope we are overly conservative but right now it's going to be a latter half for the year.
Richard Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Okay. And then on the Steve on the distressed suppliers in Europe or I guess Bruce. Is that picking up steam or what do you think you are in term of seeing the stress there right now?
R. Bruce McDonald
I would say -- I wouldn't maybe say it's picking up steam but it just keeps on going, I guess. We are not really seeing a lot of that -- I think North America that's improving and people have adjusted their cost base. Production is back to normal but I think in Europe there is a little bit lot more pressure in the tier two, tier threes than we've seen before.
Stephen Roell
It's not a huge issue, I would put, it's 15 to 20 million a quarter type number for us.
Richard Kwas - Wells Fargo Securities, LLC
Okay. And then just last question Steve, you talked about, earlier in the year you talked about the stimulus benefit kind of thinking about at over a three year timeframe let's say 2010-2012. I think in last week talked about their benefit, they think the benefit to them is going to be more in 2010 and 2011. Given what you're seeing at least on the bidding activity and kind of how the timing in these projects are playing out. Is there any change to that kind of three year timeframe in terms of the bulk of the revenue coming online?
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