Question-and-Answer Session
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Your first question comes from Brian Johnson - Barclays Capital.
Brian Johnson - Barclays Capital
In terms of the German-style scrappage program which the president endorsed yesterday or, excuse me, on Monday - you mentioned a 1 million number. Ford had a similar number. Can you kind of take us through maybe some of the market segmentation logic that gets you there because the actual response rate in Germany scaled to the U.S. would be a far greater number.
Mike DiGiovanni
Yes. I'm looking here to see if I've got it with me. I don't have all - I don't think I brought it with me. Ted, I don't know if you've got the - but anyway, the bottom line is there's a couple different things being looked at.
There's a bill, Mr. Sutton's bill, that provide buyers vouchers of about $3,000 to $5,000 if they turn in cars that are eight years or older and they buy a new car that gets at least 24 miles per the gallon or a truck that gets 27 miles per gallon. This is highway. The money could also be used for mass transit.
The other bill is Mr. Feinstein's bill, which would provide incentives of $2,500 to $4,500 if the clunker could get no more than 18 miles per gallon, the vehicle they're trading in. The new car would have to exceed fuel efficiency standards for its class by at least 25 percent. Mr. Feinstein's bill, it wouldn't cover vehicles that cost more than $45,000, while Mr. Sutton's bill would cap the price at $35,000.
You know, this cash for clunkers obviously is appealing to many of the lawmakers. Dan Weiss, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, independently says the stimulus contains $91 billion for clean energy, $3.3 billion for clean vehicles, and some of that money could be used for this scrappage program, which we estimate would cost $1 to $2 billion a year.
We've done a couple different takes on this. It depends if it's more of a general scrappage program with more latitude. You can get plus sales probably in the neighborhood of 1.5 million net plus, plus I think it's total 3 million, about 1.5 million net plus because there'll be some pull forward out of 2010. If we do a more conservative scrappage program with restrictions, the low end estimate is probably about 900,000 net plus sales, a total of 1.8 net plus about 0.9.
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