Honeywell International Inc. Q3 2007 Earnings Call Transcript

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2007-10-19 09:52:36.0

Tags: Honeywell International Inc.

Question-and-Answer Session


Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Your first question comes from the line of Shannon O'Callaghan with Lehman Brothers.

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Good morning, guys.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hi Shannon.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey Shannon

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Just a couple of questions, I guess, on transportation. You mentioned some of the Turbo investments there as well as some issues in CPG. Can you give us a little more color around that? Maybe some quantification of where the margin pressure was driven from?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, on the quantification, I probably won't want to give you a lot of that because we don't generally disclose it, but it really does come down to the two things that you mentioned. One is we have won a lot of orders if you look at the last couple years and it was the previous boost in new platforms to the greatest number of new platforms in that two-year period than... had been seen in a while. And our guys want a pile of them. We will want to make sure that we launch flawlessly. We want this to be one where customers look at us and say, wow, those are the guys you want to go with because they know their stuff. Well, that means we'd be very careful and spending the money that we need to, to make sure that we've got great reliability, and that's why call it an investment because it is. We have unfortunately kind of an expense, but the fact is an investment that we are making sure we do right thing for the customers.

On the second one on CPG, I'd have to say it's really as simple as we are just not executing as well on there as we should. And our team knows it. We got a renewed vigor in there. And they are going to be paying more attention to it. And it's painful and it's simple as that. Dave, anything you want to add?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I would just say Dave, I think relative to the quantification just directionally about half of the margin, the client is associated with that new product investment, and about half of it is related to the operational issues that Dave mentioned.

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Okay, great. And I mean... I guess as you look out on those, I mean, the turbo stuff is sort of... is good news because you're investing for a lot of growth there, you say maybe you have some visibility in terms of when that investment turns to an improving margin, and then in same in CPG in terms again through some of the issues there. Can you talk about them a little more and when you think you might go from margin pressure to maybe recovery or flattening?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

That's not the kind of timing I guess that I'd want to put on. But beyond saying, let's say the 2008 will be better, let's put it that way.

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Okay. And then just a question on ACS, I mean the growth in solutions continues to be really impressively strong there, and it seems like that it's probably going to stay that way. I mean in terms of the mix right, which is fine but I guess if you think about the margins there, it would seem to me that that pressure is probably going to stay there for sort of positive reasons. Would you agree with that?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I would say that we expect to continue to grow very well in both and I think it's one of the advantages of being in multi industries. You never know... you are playing at a lot of different places because you never exactly, which market is going to do extremely well, or what area you are going to do extremely well despite your best efforts to forecast. To the extent that solutions does grow faster than the product side, then yes, it does cause more of the mix issue. But just because that's happening this year, I wouldn't say that necessarily that's the way it has to be going forward. And I don't think we're good enough to be able to predict that.

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Yeah, okay. Just seems like they drivers for solutions are probably going to stay pretty strong, but --

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Actually, we kind of hope so because we kind of like the... we kind of like the overall growth. And when you have the business growing consistently, as Dave pointed out double-digit sales and income that's not so shabby.

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

And just the last one on CPG, obviously, you will get a quarter like this and everything really all the key drivers of the company are doing exceptionally well. And then you have CPG kind of dragging on you a little bit. Any thoughts of doing anything differently there or getting more aggressive either on the cost side or strategically?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I would say definitely there were two things differently and that's why the team is in there. This is all stuff that's correctable. We have done it to ourselves and we need to fix it and we will. Dave is there anything you want to add on either the ACS margin comment or CPG?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No. I just... I think your point was good... points were good, which is the fundamentals on ACS, Shannon, as you know are good. Across the board, we obviously have backlog and sort of if you will long cycle contribution of the solutions that's going to... we think that's going to continue obviously into 2008 and beyond, hopefully beyond. And with respect to CPG, I think just underscore what Dave said, we have got new leadership in the business both the President of the business, as well as on the ISC side, the innovative supply chain side. Top talent recently put in place into new roles and very, very focused on fixing some of the issues that we saw, which really came through in the third quarter.

Shannon O'Callaghan - Lehman Brothers, Inc.

Okay. Thanks a lot, guys.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

You're welcome Shannon.

Operator

Your next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Citigroup.

Jeffrey Sprague - Citigroup

Thank you. Good morning.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey Jeff.

A: Jeffrey Sprague: Dave Anderson, when you were actually going through your segment update for '07, you actually did not give the margin target for ACS. Has that changed?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The full year number for ACS now is 11.3%; and Jeff, it has changed. We have guidance of about 11.5% previously. And it's reflective of that higher solutions mix that we anticipate now for ACS for the full year. So it's just... that higher revenues that I mentioned, the $12.3 billion and that significant contribution that's coming from solutions and that's... it's really a second half phenomenon compared to the guidance that we gave you in July for the full year.

Jeffrey Sprague - Citigroup

And can you give us a sense of the type of operating leverage that you are seeing in products. So we obviously understand this mix issue. I guess I personally was hoping to see a little bit more margins comes through despite that on the notion that operating leverage and products margins that are still probably fundamentally lower than they should be would in fact start to turn up. So can you give us just a little bit of color where product margins are or what the incremental margins are like and what kind of upside you might have there?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

The conversion remains very strong on the products side. So Jeff, we are getting the benefit of volume as well as productivity with some price and productivity... actually price is about neutral. But we are getting the benefit of volume as well as productivity. Some of that is being offset by material inflation. So... one of things we obviously work very hard on is having the combination of price and productivity offsetting material inflation. But we did have material inflation headwind in ACS and literally across our businesses in the quarter. So part of that is being impacted, but the conversion rate... the margin conversion rate, the incremental pre-tax that we are getting on the product side of the business is very strong in terms of... we are typically in that 20% to 30% range in terms of conversion in the products, and that was our performance in the third quarter as well.

Jeffrey Sprague - Citigroup

Right. And then just one on aero; it looks like Boeing kind of took you guys out of the spotlight on 787 issues, but nevertheless your R&D is ramping up as you try to help them get the program launched. Can you just give us a sense of where R&D was in the quarter versus the prior year and how to think about whether there are headwinds or tailwinds in that number as we look into '08?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, R&D was up slightly in aerospace in the third quarter compared to prior year, but not really anything that significant. And what we've been able to do and this is consistent with our previous discussion on this. It's really to continue to balance our overall engineering and R&D spend consistent with the earnings guidance, Jeff, and the margin expansion guidance that we've given you for aero, both for the quarter, the remainder of the year and the full year. So it's really pretty... it's significant in terms of managing the overall mix of R&D spend and resources, if not significant financially.

Jeffrey Sprague - Citigroup

Thanks a lot.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

If I could be just build on Dave's point, the 787 is one of a multitude of programs that we work on. I wouldn't say it in anyway dominates our R&D spending. And we have a lot of programs that we focus on and manage. And for me it's always been one of the strengths of the Honeywell Aerospace businesses is breadth to the different platforms we are on. And I hope Jeff, well, you could say you were somewhat disappointed in the ACS margin growth, but overall you'd have to say that if we keep being disappointing with 23% EPS growth that's still not a bad place to be.

Jeffrey Sprague - Citigroup

The EPS growth is good, but I think the kernel of my thought there is as you guys did put out this 20% margin target, you are a long way from that if margins were only going up 50 bps a year on a consolidated basis. That target just does not ring creditable at all, so the question really becomes when we really start. Particularly in light of maybe the macro fundamentals not looking quite as bright, maybe you can't rely on the top line quite as much and therefore you need to really bring it home on the margins. So if you got any thoughts there on kind of '08, '09 margins as horse works it way through on some of these other things, I think we probably all love to hear it actually.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And we look forward to our December discussion.

Jeffrey Sprague - Citigroup

Thank you very much.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Jeff.

Operator

Your next question comes from Scott Davis with Morgan Stanley.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Hi, good morning everybody.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey Scott.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

I was hoping you talk about all the cabbage you are making there, Dave.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

It is lots of cabbage, and it was up 30%, I'd have to say it feels pretty darn good.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Put a smile on my face and what's been a pretty long week. But I don't want to be a communitarian [ph] but I am going to pile on, on Jeff's comments. And I guess one thing I don't get and it could just be that I'm dense, but why can't you get some operating leverage in the solution side of the business? And I guess what I am asking is when you're up 19%, seemingly it provides an opportunity to maybe get a little price, a little operating leverage. And I assume some of this would be fairly high margin sales and things like experience in PKS, where you have already expensed a fair amount of that R&D development costs. And so, I would think your incremental margins there would be pretty higher. Am I missing something?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

No. Actually, I think what you find is in just about everyone of the businesses margin rates are increasing. It really is the mix issues that Dave was talking about. Dave, I don't know if there is anything you want to add there. It's really just kind of a math thing.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, it is. And also I think within solutions, we had particularly good growth, stock on the building solution side. So you kind of had mix within mix so to speak in terms of that. And just didn't see kind of contrast to the question earlier about conversion just didn't see that same level of conversion on the solutions. So I just... we just didn't see the volume leverage during the quarter.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Now, I mean again to pile on what Jeff was saying, I mean you had a lot of macro tailwinds in ACS, and when you think about kind of converting 12% top line to 13% segment profit, I mean if we had a little bit of a speed bump, is there anything you can do? I mean are you in a position where there are high discretionary expenses in that business right now or some other lever that you may have to offset any weakness?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, of course. We spend a lot of time and money building the product pipeline, building the common processes system, all things where in the good times you really invest --

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Hello?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, sorry. We are getting a lot of feedback. On the good times you invest and you do just buying because it sets you up for the tougher times. However, tougher times come; you don't have to keep investing at that rate because all your markets got pushed out also. So yes, we have... I think we have real flexibility there and actually I think over the next few years, you'll be quite encouraged by what you see coming out ACS.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Okay. And lastly again to pile on transportation a bit, the... when you think about kind of where you came in versus guidance, I mean you... presumably you would've known a quarter ago that you have platform investments in your product costs, plan performance issues. I'm sure you didn't and you certainly knew about the inflation costs. So, I'm still not kind of getting 150 bip miss here if it's not adding up; I mean is this the function where maybe you went after volumes a little aggressively and could have gotten some more price if... or again, is it all just buried in CPG and we are just not seeing... we're just not getting the breakout?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Dave, why don't you go ahead?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Again as I've said earlier, Scott that we had from an R&D, from an engineering standpoint, greater new product expense and new platform expense in the quarter. That affected us in terms of the 90 basis points hurt in the quarter from a margin standpoint. But the more important thing to your question in terms of what we had visibility, and to... where we were disappointed in the quarter was really these operational challenges that we had in CPG in both North America, as well as in Europe mostly client related with other operational issues and that resulted in about 90 basis point impact in terms of margin as well. So that was earlier when I referenced the directionally is half the investment and half the operational performance. So really from a visibility standpoint, I think the thing that really hit us in the quarter for TS and for CPG were these operational issues. And we just didn't have the visibility, didn't have the... have that in our sites when we forecast the quarter for the business. Now the good news is that we had greater than anticipated strength in our passenger vehicle business, they executed very, very well from a volume standpoint in the quarter, and that momentum is going to continue. And as Dave said earlier, we are very confident that we are getting our arms around the CPG-related issues. We are very, very confident that we will round those and we will see year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter improvement as we progress. But the big thing on the visibility was the operational issues.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Okay, now I get it. I mean the reason why everybody I think is being so tough on is that the last several quarters, you have been so good on guidance and everything has been fairly spot on. And this is the first quarter I think where we, where there is just some clear questions plus at $60 stock price, you going to have tougher questions than when it was $40 stock price.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Absolutely. As we take pride, obviously and in terms of not only our macro guidance, but also the specifics of that guidance. And the execution of this is just one where we missed on the operation issues. On the other hand, it doesn't affect... the numbers in total given obviously the strengths that we had overall. And as we said with the confidence we have in the leaders, new leaders that we have in place there, and already what we have in place in terms of the actions, I'm confident we've got our arms around it and we'll see quarter-over-quarter improvement.

Scott Davis - Morgan Stanley & Co.

Okay, great. That's helpful. Thank you, guys.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

All right. Thanks Scott.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of John Inch with Merrill Lynch.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

Thanks. Hello?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey John.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hi John.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

So UOP up 28% pretty lumpy versus last quarter. Could you guys talk about the refining side of UOP versus the non-refining side? Was there one particular aspect throughout those results and how we should think of this business going forward?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I'd say prospects for the business look good for our long part of the cycle here. This is still a real shortage of overall refining capacity out there. And there is a lot of refineries on the drawing board all of which are going to be good for UOP. So I feel pretty good about the prospects of this business for a while. Dave, anything you want to add?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I'd say we had kind of across the board to your question, John, we had across the board strength in UOP in both refining and petrochemical, and in terms of products, as well as in license, and royalty income. So... and across all the regions, so and just underscore of what David said, we just see really good continued momentum and that's based into that fourth quarter guidance that we'd given to you.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

Right. But that's really on your trend line expectations for these businesses are robust on the refining side. Is that not?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, I think that's fair to say.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

So was there something about the petrochem business this quarter or is it just --?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No. I think it's more of when we talk about UOP given the breadth of UOP, and again the number of different contracts, the revenue recognition in terms of the recognition on both product side, and on the services side and the royalty side. What we are going to see is we are going to see these kinds of quarters and we have guided that historically. Directionally, I think pretty well in terms of the ups and downs in terms of that variability. But the trend line to Dave's point, which is I think really the important takeaway is that we continue to see very positive underlying macro trends for the business. We have got real good confidence in the outlook for the business for the remainder of this year.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

So Dave, you spent $3.7 billion on share repurchase year-to-date. It's actually about double what you spend all of last year. Can you just remind us again the process... the thought process, the capital allocation thinking behind why you have been so aggressive through the first part of this year, and what would have changed from last year, particularly considering last year... the share price was actually not immaterially lower than where it is today. Just a little help on kind of how you sort of how we got to where we are today and what are you thinking?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Let me take a shot and then we'll ask Dave. And as I said you'll probably be bored with my answer because it's pretty consistent with what we've said in the past is we always look at dividends, share repurchase and acquisitions. The dividend we want to ensure stays competitive. Acquisitions, we think we are very good acquirer and we think there is the... we do a very good job of building value with those. And we also always look at share repurchases and how does that makes sense. And obviously, there is a trade off. If we think that we have a lot of very good deals in the pipeline then we pull back on repurchases. If we don't see as many good deals in the pipeline, well, repurchases make more sense. And if we take a look at the... as we got into the beginning of this year and the frothy market, there weren't a lot of good deals out there. And our guys really worked hard at beating the bushes looking for those good smaller industries where we can really make a difference. And it was really tougher to find something. And we talked about it Dave, me, my staff discussed it with the Board. And we elected that it made sense to go forward with the bigger share repurchase is the best deployment of capital that really was as simple as that. Dave, anything you want to add?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No. I think that really says it very well. I think the other thing is that when you... as we go forward and we said this to kind of repeating what Dave said but a little different words is we want to able to do it all. We want to be able to grow our strong businesses, reinvest and add both organically and inorganically to the growth, and also return value to the shareholders in the best way possible.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

Okay. So I understand that. So since then of course, we've had the liquidity crisis and at least some evidence that multiples are coming down. So as we think about this, does the outlook for capital allocation as it tilted more favorably to sort of away from share purchase, and more toward doing some deals... actually you did that one deal in ACS. Should we be thinking about more of those coming or versus share repurchase going forward?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I would say when it comes to our timing and having repurchased that 40 million shares, hopefully everybody out there is giving us a blue ribbon for timing because I don't think it could have been much better. We have seen since that time that our prices have become better. And when we look at acquisitions, the deals are better than they were just 6-8 months ago. Whether that will stay through and be for stuff that we like, like this handheld products remains to be seen. But certainly pricing has gotten better. It used to be... and as said, if you just go back 5-6 months ago, it was getting tougher and tougher to find stuff that made sense. And a lot of that stuff does make sense today. Dave?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. That's great and I would say just a rich pipeline, a robust pipeline in terms of acquisition opportunities that will continue to be very disciplined about but we are frankly excited about.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

Right. Thank you.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

You're welcome, John.

John Inch - Merrill Lynch & Co.

Okay.

Operator

And your last question comes from the line of Howard Rubel with Jefferies.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

Thank you very much. Couple of things. First on something simple.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Not even a hello, Howard?

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

I'm sorry, Dave. I apologize. I figured you just wanted to be all business.

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Howard.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

Thank you, gentlemen. I will remember that. Couple of things. First on CapEx, you've running a little bit ahead of last year but you'll need a little over $300 million in the fourth quarter to make your $800 million plan. Is that typically... I know fourth quarter is always big. Is that what we are looking at or might you come in a little below the $800 million for the year?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Dave, why don't you grab --.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I think we are probably coming in a little lower than the $800 million, Howard for the year. I wouldn't be surprised --

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

I'm sorry.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I wouldn't be surprised to see a number closer to around $770 million for the year.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

Pension and OPEB was a little higher than it had been in the last couple of quarters. Was it an actuarial change or was it something that different like that?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Pension in the quarter in addition to the normal run rate that we have through 2007, which you've seen in the first two quarters of the year, we also recognized a settlement in principal on a class-action suit referred to as Allen [ph], which you may recall has been in our disclosures in our K and in our Qs. And just to give you a little bit of the highlights on that, in preliminary settlement that will be dismissed in which we have a number of claims in that case that will be dismissed in exchange for $35 million, and we recognize that in the third quarter. Now the important thing regarding this is two important points to make. One is that the settlement payment will be payable from the company's pension plan, so it's not cash that's coming out of operations and as you know, the company's pension plan is currently over funded.

Number two, we expect to prevail in this matter. We've got a very strong case based on the merits and substantial affirmative defenses, but we settled in terms of this preliminary settlement, the majority of these claims 18 of the 21 claims in this class action suit. Just because of the risk that's inherent in cut complex class action litigation. So it was something we feel good about. Basically, it helps us in terms of... we hope significant resolution of an item, and again is reflected in that pension expense for the quarter.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

But that was like $0.02, maybe $0.03 a share, Dave?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, about $0.03.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

$0.03?

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

And then the final thing, I could not talk about avionics for a moment; you were a little bit abused by one of your customers, I mean, Boeing moved the goalpost a bit on the 787. Flight controls are probably one of the hardest things to do on an aircraft. And so how did you go about repairing your public reputation or perception of it because frankly from what I can tell, you're actually doing a pretty good job on it?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, that's actually kind of interesting, Howard. Because I'd say amongst our customer base, our reputation is actually pretty good. We do the most sophisticated avionics in the world. But I would say that sometimes in the press the way things get picked up, we can end up being blamed or taking an unfair share of an issue and while bothersome at the end of the day. I think if you want to talk to Boeing and ask Jim McNerney, he'd say Honeywell does a great job for him and he is very pleased with the work we do on the 787 and we work extremely well with them. And it's just an unfortunate fact sometimes that we do end up with kind of reactions due to comments made by a customer. But at the end of the day, our customer relationships are extremely good. There is a reason why we win about 80% of what we go after.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

No. And I recognize the difficulty in the flight control system, and you have done a good job. It just seems that the perception was a little bit harder on you than reality?

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it was and it's nice to have you say it though, Howard. I'd have to say it's very nice to hear it because let's say that's not a fundament that we get from our customers when we talk with them. But as you know, we don't get to write the articles.

Howard Rubel - Jefferies & Co.

Thank you for your time.

David J. Anderson - Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Howard.

Operator

And I would now like to turn the conference back over to Murray Grainger.

Murray Grainger - Vice President, Investor Relations

Thank you very much and thanks very much for joining the call. Remember to join us again on December 12th for our 2008 outlook. We'll speak to you later on in the day. Thank you very much.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen --

David M. Cote - Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey guys, thanks.

Operator

This concludes the Honeywell's third quarter 2007 earnings release conference call. You may now disconnect.


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