Canadian Natural Resources Limited Q3 2009 Earnings Call Transcript

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2009-11-07 01:43:07.0

Tags: Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Call Transcript, Earnings, Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Kirby, Horizon, Execution Strategy, Strategy, Management, Seeking Alpha

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. We will now take questions from the telephone lines. (Operator instructions). Thank you for your patience. Our first question is from Arjun Murti of Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Arjun MurtiGoldman Sachs

Thank you. Steve, I think you mentioned that both Kirby and Horizon you have updates cost estimates around the fourth quarter of 2010, it sounded like you're more confident that Kirby will be sanctioned, I think Horizon, you left more wiggle room, just wanted to make sure I understand the distinction there, maybe you are just further along on the Kirby spending, and then perhaps the related fall off would simply be? Is there some minimum oil price you need to have confidence in relative to the cost estimates to move forward with Horizon? Thank you.

Steve Laut

Arjun, thanks for that question. I think you've got it nailed pretty much on the head. We are further along in Kirby in our engineering, so we will get there sooner. So we have a lot more confidence that we will be completed and have a good cost estimate. Horizon is a much more complex and difficult execution strategy. We have learned a lot from phase 1 and we've still a lot to go, and we want to make sure that we have the optimum execution strategy and the most flexible execution strategy going forward, because as you know, we don't want to get caught here with a higher oil price and then get trapped in between. And we also will need some regulatory approvals for Horizon to go forward on some of it. So all in all, we're looking both for Q4 to get the cost estimates and we will have those. As far as sanctions, I think it is pretty clear that Kirby is very likely to go ahead. Horizon I think is likely but we want to make sure we don't be premature, and make sure we got it right for it to go ahead.

Arjun MurtiGoldman Sachs

So it is possible that the cost coming in and between continuing to run phase 1 that it is not inconceivable that you end up sanctioning Horizon as well at the end of next year? Do we really need to think about that as sort of 2011 type event?

Steve Laut

I would think there is a greater likelihood that it will be early 2011 and late 2010, but it all depends what the market is and how quickly we can pull our strategy together.

 

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