Moog Inc. F1Q09 (Qtr End 12/27/08) Earnings Call Transcript

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2009-01-26 12:37:14.0

Tags: Ramp, Call Transcript, Earnings, Moog Inc., Cai, Rumohr, Inventory Reduction, Sales Strategy, Mergers & Acquisitions, Sales, Investment, Finance, Seeking Alpha

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

(Operator instructions) And our first question comes from the line of Cai von Rumohr with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Cai von Rumohr – Cowen

Yes, thank you very much. Bob, obviously, things changed quite a lot. When we look at your revised estimates for plastics and for steel and for metal forming, it looks like they are implying that their sales rate in the next three quarters will be higher than the first quarter. Why are you making that assumption given the big fall-off we had in the first quarter?

Bob Brady

They are pretty much a continuation of the shipment level in the first quarter and they are reflecting our order input. So we don’t think we’re pushing – at least at the moment, we don’t think we are pushing in our forecast for those categories.

John Scannell

The one other piece, Cai, that might have a bearing is that we think there’s a significant inventory reduction in the fourth quarter that – so if you kind of go back to a normalized production rate, we think that there might be a small step-up in some of those markets. But as Bob said, I think we’re remaining very conservative.

Cai von Rumohr – Cowen

So your feeling is that part of the big drop sequentially in those markets was inventory reduction at your customers?

Bob Brady

It was inventory reduction and so much of – since a lot of the business is done in Europe, the December-ending quarter is typically the weakest quarter of the year, even in robust circumstances, because so much of Europe takes August and part of September off. They don’t place orders, and deliveries are kind of weak. But it’s – as I say, I think what we’re projecting for those categories is pretty much the fourth quarter annualized. It’s not a big reach.

Cai von Rumohr – Cowen

Okay. And then power gen, you’ve got 118 for the year. What do you – refresh my memory, what do the LTi – is that still going to add 46 million –?

Bob Brady

No, actually that’s doing better. And so the 118 includes 64 million now for LTi.

Cai von Rumohr – Cowen

Got it. Okay. So you – basically you don’t have the huge sequential ramp, you have this just enormous ramp in the third and the fourth quarter?

Bob Brady

Yes, it will be – one month in June we’ll complete the transaction, the acquisition early in June. So we’ll basically have four months.

 

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